Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 12.141795 13.897552 15.788169 17.971697 20.420192 23.077229 26.174883
2025-06-22 9.720122 12.136366 14.938762 18.414060 22.591825 27.435125 33.456719
2025-06-29 8.220707 10.862573 14.077228 18.248678 23.487230 29.814044 37.995783
2025-07-06 6.755246 9.412241 12.792755 17.366250 23.342653 30.831786 40.863020
2025-07-13 6.135331 8.933246 12.626522 17.796499 24.773540 33.779495 46.185150
2025-07-20 5.592410 8.481167 12.425702 18.122007 26.036928 36.529283 51.348730
2025-07-27 5.018153 7.912304 11.993547 18.063039 26.730252 38.508311 55.533471
2025-08-03 4.483843 7.339437 11.492340 17.843300 27.149493 40.093383 59.212347
2025-08-10 4.086434 6.927210 11.178806 17.850796 27.861973 42.085378 63.510901
2025-08-17 3.781051 6.624263 10.995488 18.022248 28.799810 44.414633 68.363485
2025-08-24 3.463979 6.269557 10.698532 17.987604 29.408747 46.272235 72.588704
2025-08-31 3.158974 5.903794 10.350730 17.839204 29.818267 47.831640 76.415096
2025-09-07 2.936571 5.662815 10.192577 17.991770 30.719039 50.195463 81.596026
2025-09-14 2.803134 5.564670 10.261189 18.513947 32.228732 53.552996 88.431654
2025-09-21 2.557459 5.239630 9.917619 18.320131 32.558729 55.076442 92.475492
2025-09-28 2.227431 4.725198 9.203971 17.443883 31.706112 54.679345 93.470011
2025-10-05 2.129962 4.642563 9.245738 17.872523 33.049200 57.840831 100.231145
2025-10-12 2.025416 4.535623 9.233586 18.200450 34.230078 60.778008 106.732644
2025-10-19 1.877321 4.326786 9.016053 18.140842 34.729872 62.603468 111.476228
2025-10-26 1.722369 4.088248 8.723153 17.920402 34.927745 63.921518 115.416400
2025-11-02 1.608118 3.923991 8.559795 17.927877 35.526016 65.931129 120.575546
2025-11-09 1.521379 3.810592 8.487032 18.100006 36.425699 68.484704 126.737951
2025-11-16 1.419455 3.653378 8.314065 18.065222 36.937846 70.378219 131.828204